The recently concluded impeachment trial that acquitted the President has sparked debate about the Trump reelection odds. Today’s article aims to help shed some light on those odds.
In this article:
- Reelection History of the U.S. Presidency
- Impact of the Senate Acquittal on the Trump Reelection Odds
- Internal Conflicts Within the DNC and How This May Affect the Odds
- Actual Betting Odds on the Trump Reelection Chances
Trump Reelection Odds in 2020: Win or Lose?
Reelection History of the U.S. Presidency
For most young voters, incumbency is an advantage when it comes to convincing American voters to reelect current presidents. This is because, for most of the younger voting generation, all they can remember were the last three successive reelected Presidents, namely:
- Barack Obama
- George W. Bush
- Bill Clinton
More than just the coincidence of three successive presidents winning reelections, incumbency is a built-in advantage. At least, that’s what voters usually think of.
However, looking at the long-term history of presidential reelections will reveal that incumbents aren’t always a shoo-in for reelections. Based on long-term reelection data, only 17 of the 44 people who were voted U.S. President got reelected.
Doing the math, one will see that the Trump reelection odds for reelection is only 38%. Reelections for three successive American presidents only happened once before, with Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe.
But given the facts, why do some believe that the Trump Reelection odds are high?
It appears that consolidation of Executive Branch powers has a huge say on whether an incumbent President wins reelection. According to former Al Gore adviser Margaret O’Mara, this consolidation may be due to the Office of the President becoming so much more powerful as time went by.
Especially in the 20th Century, circumstances surrounding the American presidency have changed dramatically. In particular, the circumstances that have made American presidents more powerful include:
- The increasing ability of recent presidents – from Reagan to Obama – to utilize their position and authority
- The bigger platforms President Trump and the most recent American presidents enjoy, thanks largely to social media
- Greater division in Congress
Impact of the Senate Acquittal on the Trump Reelection Odds
Regardless of political affiliation or opinion, one thing’s perfectly clear during the entire impeachment process: Donald Trump won.
Considering there were very serious doubts about the legitimacy of the impeachment articles from the get-go, Trump’s acquittal may have won even more voters to the incumbent President.
During the Senate trial in January, a Gallup poll showed the President’s approval rating hit a first-term high of 49%. Within the GOP, Trump’s approval rating was a staggering 94%.
The same thing happened to another reelected American president, Bill Clinton. After getting impeached, his DNC approval rating rose even higher and never dipped below 52%.
What could be the reason for that seemingly irrational event? It’s human nature to rally behind an embattled leader.
Given how the members of the DNC rallied behind its embattled leader Bill Clinton during his impeachment, it’s reasonable to expect the GOP to do the same for Trump. This can increase his odds of being reelected in 2020.
Internal Conflicts Within the DNC and How This May Affect the Odds
One of the challenges facing the DNC in terms of the upcoming election is internal conflicts. One example is statements made by key DNC leaders regarding Trump’s purported economic accomplishments.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi seemingly discredited the economic accomplishments and data that the President reported in his State-of-the-Union address by ripping up her copy of his speech. In a tweet, former President Barack Obama also seemingly took a swing at Trump by stating that his administration was responsible for the economic gains the country is enjoying.
For those monitoring the DNC caucuses, the intense debates among nominees may be indicative of how fragmented the party is. Hostilities between former Senator Hilary Clinton and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard also indicate a potentially massive rift within the DNC.
Considering that the GOP appears to be united in rallying behind their embattled leader, the Trump reelection odds may be against the DNC.
Actual Betting Odds on the Trump Reelection Chances
According to a report by betting news website Oddsshark, Republicans have a -190 odds of winning the 2020 elections compared to the Democrats’ +145, as of February 25, 2020. The website also reports that Trump is the -180 favorite to win.
In this case, many experienced betters believe that President Trump will win reelection this year.
Will Trump win reelection in 2020? Based on key indicators and developments, the Trump reelection odds appear to be quite high. However, only time will tell what will really happen, so stay tuned for more updates on the U.S. elections.
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Do you think President Trump will win again in 2020? Let us know in the comments section below.